The Second-Order Effects of the Degradation of Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Implications for U.S. National Security

Jane McGuiggin

July 15, 2026

 

Over the course of two months, the National Security Policy Center’s 2026 summer intern cohort conducted research on critical national security issues on behalf of UVA’s National Security Data and Policy Institute (NSDPI). The group’s work culminated in individual white papers on topics approved by NSDPI supervisors. Undergraduate researcher Jane McGuiggin’s white paper, “The Second-Order Effects of the Degradation of Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Implications for U.S. National Security,” examines potential unintended consequences of joint U.S.-Israeli action against Iran that could undermine the United States’ future security interests.

 

Decorative

Executive Summary

Beginning in 2023, after the October 7th attacks, Israel and the United States have led a joint effort to degrade Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which has been largely successful in terms of military destruction. However, it is imperative that the United States accounts for the second-order effects of the degradation of the Axis of Resistance for national security purposes. This paper brings two potential outcomes of the degradation of the Axis that would be threatening to the U.S. to light: 1) the resurgence of Sunni jihadist organizations as a result of security vacuums and 2) the further decentralization of Iran’s proxy network. This paper also provides the most significant lessons learned from previous U.S. counterterrorism efforts that must be considered in the case of addressing the second-order effects of the degradation of the Axis, which include the importance of multilateral cooperation, local partners, and expanding beyond decapitation alone as a leading counterterrorism strategy.

 

Research Placemat:

The Second-Order Effects of the Degradation of Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Implications for U.S. National Security

 

White Paper:

The Second-Order Effects of the Degradation of Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Implications for U.S. National Security