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NSPC Researcher and Former STRATCOM Commander Co-Author Analysis of Ukraine’s Black Sea Campaign and the Future of Naval Warfare

July 23, 2026

Dr. John Robinson, the director of academic programs at the Batten School‘s National Security Policy Center (NSPC), has co-authored a new article examining Ukraine’s Black Sea campaign and its implications for naval warfare. Written alongside Admiral Charles A. Richard, USN (Ret.), former commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) and now president of the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), “Narrowing Seas: The Littoral Strike Complex and the Future of Naval Warfare” appeared in the U.S. Naval War College Review’s Summer 2026 issue. The article addresses the essential question following the unexpected success of Ukraine’s sea-denial strategy: What does this conflict reveal about emerging technologies and the future of warfare at sea? 

Dr. Robinson and Admiral Richard argue that Ukraine’s integration of unmanned systems with precision-guided missiles, decentralized command and control, and third-party sensors and networks is greater than the sum of its parts. This configuration of old and new technologies, which they refer to as a “Littoral Strike Complex (LSC),” represents a meaningful inflection point for naval operations. According to Robinson and Richard, threats in the littorals are increasingly omnidirectional, making naval combat less linear and more unpredictable. Decentralized command and control is now a matter of survival rather than a preference, while sea control itself should be understood as increasingly temporary and contested. 

By examining the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva, the Ukrainian assault to retake Snake Island, and the broader two-year campaign that ultimately destroyed roughly a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the authors trace the evolution of Ukraine’s approach from coastal defense into a fully distributed network of manned and unmanned assets that reached across the Black Sea. They extend the analysis to the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels—supported by Iran, Russia, and China—employed a less-sophisticated but still effective LSC against U.S. naval vessels and coalition merchant shipping.  

Their article stems from a year-long collaboration while ADM Richard was the Schlesinger Distinguished Professor at UVA’s Miller Center. Together, Dr. Robinson and Admiral Richard co-chaired Sea Power 2025, a research initiative focused on how emerging technologies and asymmetric tactics have accelerated the integration of unmanned systems by navies worldwide, with implications for the future of naval warfare, strategy, and force structures. The analysis behind “Narrowing Seas” benefited from this larger project, which brought together faculty and student researchers, providing a singular training opportunity for the next generation of national security professionals.  

Readers interested in the initiative’s full scope, including its research team, can learn more on the NSPC website. “Narrowing Seas: The Littoral Strike Complex and the Future of Naval Warfare” is available now through the Naval War College Review’s digital archive.